Why Donald Trump Secured a Breakthrough in the Middle East Yet Struggles Regarding Putin Over the Ukraine Conflict

Trump and Putin's planned talks on the near four-year war in Ukraine have been put on hold
Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin's scheduled talks on the almost lengthy war in Ukraine have been put on hold.

Reports of an upcoming US-Russia leadership summit have been greatly exaggerated, apparently.

Only a few days after Donald Trump announced he intended to confer with Russian President Putin in Budapest - "in approximately a fortnight" - the summit has been put off without a new date.

A initial get-together by the two nations' leading diplomats has been called off, too.

"I prefer not to have a wasted meeting," Donald Trump told the press at the executive mansion on a recent weekday. "I don't want a waste of time, so I'll see what happens."
  • Trump says he wished to avoid a 'wasted meeting' after plan for Putin talks shelved
  • Disappointment in Ukraine's capital as President Zelensky departs Washington empty-handed

The on-again, off-again meeting is just the latest development in the president's efforts to mediate an end to war in Ukraine – a subject of renewed focus for the US president after he arranged a ceasefire and prisoner exchange deal in the Palestinian territory.

During a speech in the North African country recently to commemorate that truce deal, the president turned to his lead diplomatic negotiator, with a fresh directive.

"We have to get Russia done," he declared.

However, the circumstances that aligned to make a Middle East success achievable for Witkoff and his team may be difficult to replicate in a Ukraine war that has been ongoing for nearing four years.

Reduced Influence

According to Witkoff, the crucial element to unlocking a deal was Israel's decision to strike Hamas negotiators in Qatar. It was a action that angered America's Arab allies but gave the president bargaining power to pressure Israel's leader Netanyahu into making a deal.

Trump gained from a long record of siding with Israel since his first term, including his choice to move the American embassy to Jerusalem, to alter America's position on the legality of Jewish communities in the West Bank and, more recently, his support for Israel's military campaign against Iran.

The US president, in fact, is better regarded among Israelis than Netanyahu – a position that provided him with special sway over the Israeli leader.

Combine the president's political and economic ties to influential Arab nations in the region, and he had a wealth of negotiating strength to secure an agreement.

Regarding the conflict in Ukraine, on the other hand, Trump has much less leverage. In recent months, he has swung between efforts to pressure the Russian president and then Zelensky, all with little seeming effect.

The US leader has warned to impose additional penalties on Russian energy exports and to supply Ukraine with advanced missile systems. But he has also recognised that such actions could disrupt the global economy and intensify the conflict.

Meanwhile, the president has publicly berated Zelensky, temporarily cutting off intelligence-sharing with Ukraine and suspending arms shipments to the nation - only to then retreat in the wake of concerned European allies who warn a defeat of Ukraine could destabilise the entire region.

The president loves to tout his ability to meet and hammer out deals, but his face-to-face meetings with both Putin and Zelensky have not appeared to advance the war any closer to a peaceful end.

Trump and Putin's meeting in August yielded no concrete results
Trump and Vladimir Putin's meeting in the summer produced no concrete results.

The Russian president may actually be exploiting Trump's desire for a settlement – and faith in in-person deal-making - as a means of influencing him.

In July, Putin consented to a high-level meeting in Alaska at the time when it appeared likely that the president would sign off on legislative penalties supported by GOP senators. That legislation was afterwards delayed.

Last week, as reports spread that the White House was seriously contemplating sending Tomahawk cruise missiles and air defense systems to Kyiv, the president of Russia called Trump who then promoted the potential meeting in Hungary.

The next day, the president hosted Zelensky at the White House, but left without agreements after a reportedly tense meeting.

The US leader insisted that he was not being manipulated by the Russian president.

"As you are aware, I have been manipulated all my life by the best of them, and I came out really well," he remarked.
Sequence of events in Ukraine diplomacy

However the president of Ukraine later commented on the sequence of events.

"As soon as the issue of advanced weaponry became a little further away for us – for Ukraine – the Russian side quickly became less interested in diplomacy," he said.

So, in a matter of days, the president has shifted from considering the idea of sending missiles to Ukraine to planning a meeting in Hungary with Putin and privately urging Zelensky to cede all of Donbas – even land Russia has been unable to conquer.

He has finally settled on advocating a ceasefire along current battle lines – a proposal Russia has rejected.

During his election campaign last year, the candidate vowed that he could resolve the conflict in Ukraine in a matter of hours. He has subsequently discarded that pledge, saying that concluding the war is proving harder than he anticipated.

It has been a rare acknowledgement of the constraints of his power – and the challenge of establishing a framework for peace when neither side wants, or can afford to, cease hostilities.

Victor Brock
Victor Brock

A seasoned sports analyst with a passion for data-driven betting strategies and years of experience in the industry.