🔗 Share this article

Typically, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year trophy follows a simple formula. It often serves as a form of apology. Sorry we underestimated your franchise in our pre-campaign forecasts.

In theory, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the coach who orchestrated the largest turnaround wins the award. In reality, it sparks an annual discussion about expectations and whether we're genuinely honoring superior leadership or merely the most shocking upset.

However this year's competition is distinctly different. The pool of nominees is exceptionally deep. It has been the campaign of comebacks. The league has been unpredictable, with reigning division winners fading and longtime also-rans improving together. Under an normal year, Sean Payton leading the Denver Broncos to the summit of the AFC would make him the stone-cold front-runner. Yet in this wild and thrilling year, he's competing with five other outstanding candidates.

Below is how the hypothetical vote should shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, 11-5

Coach of the Year voters adore signal-callers. This is a tradition. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. Should you fix a quarterback, you're halfway home.

Ben Johnson didn't merely corrected his young quarterback; he's unlocked him. Given a proper system, the QB has been given the chance to display his special ability. From midseason onward, the Chicago offense rank number four in offensive EPA per play. That's not a hot streak – it's sustained excellence. Under Johnson, the quarterback has become increasingly decisive, less careless, and has willingly submitted to the system instead of improvising. It is an attack built entirely in the coach's vision: a bully-ball run game, a heavy dose of play-action passes and a innovative passing attack that creates wide-open receivers consistently. Williams has capitalized. And when easy reads weren't available, he's been able to create magic from broken plays.

The coach arrived to the Bears with a defined offensive philosophy. Almost every gamble – rebuilding the offensive line, highlighting the tight ends, transforming the QB into a rhythm passer – has worked. This is uncommon for a first-year skipper. And it's even more uncommon still for a coach who entered the building with the immense pressure Johnson did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the hottest candidate on the head coaching carousel. But when it comes to hiring a leader, there are zero sure things. Somehow, Johnson has lived up to expectations – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not just to be a offensive wizard but the type of leader that can inject fresh energy into an organization.

During a ordinary season, he would be the overwhelming favorite. But the current is not a normal season!

Where Johnson's case comes slightly unstuck is on the defensive side. The Bears currently sit 25th in defensive efficiency. They are living on turnovers, and turnovers are notoriously fickle. Coaches can focus on ball disruption, but nobody can ensure it. Johnson is on the list because the offensive production is legitimate. He's not higher because luck is doing an outsized share of the defense's heavy lifting. With a couple breaks of the ball, the Bears would be two victories worse off. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the foundation is established for sustained success. However he comes up just short here.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, 12-4

Coen is in a comparable position to Johnson. He's another rookie head coach who has masterminded a swift resurgence. Over the stretch run of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the best overall football of his professional life. And he's also overseen the overhaul of a defensive unit that now sits at fifth in the NFL in EPA per play.

Even more notably, Coen has mastered the leadership aspects, which wasn't a certainty following his early public appearances and some of his preseason moves.

The coach took over the Jaguars with an uncommonly raw staff. In contrast to other coaches, who packed their staff with the ideal coaching mix of new ideas and veteran savvy, Coen trusted newbies. From the leader on down to assistants to position coaches, the Jaguars are filled with first-timers. That type of setup is exciting in theory, but frequently fails in reality – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everyone is learning a their job on the fly. Yet Coen has managed to bring the entire group and everything together.

Following an early strong beginning, there was a chance that the season would go off the track. A mid-year collapse caused the Jags wobbling again. That's typically when coaches overcorrect. Coen did not. Instead, he streamlined things. Jacksonville stopped pursuing explosive plays and started seeking consistent ones. The coach recentered the attack around his playmakers and the running game, and encouraged his QB to use his mobility more often.

The results are clear. The Jags have won seven games consecutively and will be the AFC's No 3 seed. He receives the slightest deduction in the rankings because he took over a skilled team, but he has proven he can maximize that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, Their Record

Every Strong of the Year narrative has a hinge decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB move.

Parting ways from a incumbent, bringing in a different quarterback and partnering him with an new offensive coordinator might have derailed the campaign in the early weeks. Rather, it made it. Through the mid point of the season, the acquisition was an MVP contender. He has regressed after that hot streak, dropping to a lower rank in efficiency per pass attempt over the latter part of the schedule, putting him just one spot ahead of other QBs.

Still