Surfaces, Balls and Back-ups β The Areas Where the Ashes Will Be Won and Lost
Two days to go.
The English side's first Test in Australia starts on Friday morning.
With the help of cricket statistics experts, we examine where the most eagerly-anticipated Ashes series in years could be won and lost.
It's tough to make runs, right?
Batters on both teams of the Ashes divide might be questioning why they are even planning to show up.
Much of the build-up has focused on the perceived difficulty of scoring runs, especially for the opening match on a Perth pitch labeled a "green monster".
When it comes to playing in Australian conditions, especially against pace bowling, no nation has been more difficult in which to accumulate runs over the last five years.
There are two reasons for this: wickets and balls.
Taken as a collective, the pitches produced in Australia have been shown to be the quickest, most bouncy and among the least predictable in the world.
Speed and variable bounce are the ideal combination for tough batting.
A long-standing narrative from English cricket describes the Kookaburra ball used in this country as a useless tool for a pace bowler.
An updated model of the Kookaburra was rolled out six years ago, leading to more seam movement.
Seam bowling is a much bigger weapon than swing bowling in Australian conditions.
Since the new Kookaburra, pace bowlers are averaging 25 runs per wicket in Australia.
Test cricket is about problem solving.
When bowlers dominate, batsmen's contributions can be the difference, and the reverse is true.
Should this series be dominated by the ball, a batsman could have the opportunity to be the key factor between the two teams.
Whatβs happening with the Australia seamers?
For once, England have toured Australia with their fast-bowling unit largely intact, while the hosts are the ones affected by fitness issues.
Skipper Pat Cummins will be absent for the first Test with a back injury, and Josh Hazlewood is on the sidelines for an unknown period because of a hamstring injury.
Cummins, Hazlewood and Mitchell Starc were first paired as a trio for the 2017-18 Ashes.
Since then, they have combined to claim 81% of the dismissals taken by Australia pace bowlers in home Tests.
Australia have rarely had to look elsewhere because of the effectiveness and robustness of the 'leading trio'.
On the occasions Australia have required support, Scott Boland has been outstanding, taking 62 wickets in 14 matches at an average below 17.
Aside from Boland, other members of the backup squad have stepped up.
Michael Neser, Jhye Richardson and Pattinson all average below 30 in home Tests.
The last time Australia entered a home match without both key bowlers, and were defeated, was in 2012.
On the last two occasions they have played at home without the pair, they have won by a total of 694 runs, including a victory against England in Adelaide four years ago.
On the rare occasions Australia have had to go past their superstar pacemen, results have not been affected β England should pay attention.
Tough at the top
Recall the time England could not find an opening batsman to go alongside Alastair Cook?
Cook went through partners more quickly than Watford go through managers.
No more.
Since Duckett and Crawley were united at the England opening slot at the end of 2022, no opening pair in the world has scored more runs together.
The pair's effectiveness as a combination has been a reason in Zak Crawley being backed through some inconsistent times.
The Kent man, who memorably hit the first ball of the previous Ashes for a boundary, has also been recognized as having the technique for Australia.
His average rises when the pace increases.
In comparison, the Australian opening lineup is in a constant state of flux, yet to fill the David Warner-shaped hole.
After Warner's departure at the beginning of 2024, Khawaja has walked out with five different partners in 15 Tests.
Uncapped Weatherald appears likely to become the sixth in 16 Tests on the opening day, giving Australia an left-handed opening pair.
It's not only the openers that has posed issues for Australia.
Marnus Labuschagne, Australia's regular number three, was moved to open for the World Test Championship final, then dropped entirely.
Home performances has earned him a recall, probably returning to number three.
Across seven matches in the current year, Australia's top three have a combined average of 25.37.
Only the top threes of Zimbabwe and West Indies have done worse.
Battle of Spin
Between two closely matched sides, there is a single department where Australia are clearly stronger β spin bowling.
Australia's Nathan Lyon, with 562 Test wickets of him, is among the best finger-spinners to play the game.
England's Shoaib Bashir is a moderately successful gamble, appearing out of touch after a finger injury, while Jacks is primarily a batter.
It makes sense for the home team to want Nathan Lyon at the forefront, but bowling spin has been incredibly hard work in Australia for the past 10 years.
During that period, slow bowlers have averaged nearly 44 in Australia, albeit Lyon's record holds up well compared to the difficulties of visiting tweakers.
Lyon's other issue is actually bowling enough overs.
Recall the potency of pace bowling?
It is reducing the time Lyon has with ball in hand.
In the 2017-18 Ashes here, Nathan Lyon was bowling 50 overs per Test.
Last year, in five Tests against the Indian team, it was half that number.
Test matches in Australia are 25% shorter since the new Kookaburra was introduced, meaning the spinner has fewer opportunities to influence the game.
Right place, right time?
England have a depressing habit of being defeated in an away Ashes before Santa Claus has loaded his sleigh.
Traditionally, the series began in Brisbane, where they have not won since 1986.
Recently, that has been followed with a floodlit Test in Adelaide.
England have a single victory in seven day-night matches worldwide, while the hosts have triumphed in 13 out of 14.
Then comes Perth, a city England have played at 14 times since 1970 and won only one time, against a weakened Australia in 1978.
This time, the first three stops on the tour are the same, only in a rearranged order and under altered conditions.
The Perth Test stages an Ashes opener for the first time, not at the fabled Waca β scene of many an England humbling β but the shiny new Perth Stadium.
It is still a difficult task, though one the tourists tackle with no historical baggage.
The Gabba is the location for the second match, the day-nighter.
The most recent occasion Australia played a pink-ball Test at the Brisbane, they were surprised by West Indies.
Likewise, the Aussies are now not used to playing daytime Tests at the usual day-night venue Adelaide.
Across two traditional Tests played in the City of Churches since 2014, Australia were defeated once, to India, in 2018.
The re-jigged schedule gives England a new opportunity at beginning an overseas series positively, though with risks.
The home side have won four of the five Tests played at the new Perth ground, though the single loss came in the latest game β against India last year.
Every Test at the new venue has been claimed by the team batting first.
The English often complicate day-night matches, when data suggest the pink cricket ball does not behave very differently from its red counterpart.
The challenge in {day-night matches|
