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The polls are open for parliamentary elections in Holland, with current polling data suggesting that the anti-immigration firebrand Geert Wilders and his Freedom party (PVV) could once again win the most seats, although experts believe the party stands little chance of being part of the future coalition.

Polling Trends and Political Landscape

The PVV, which in the last election achieved a shock top result and formed a four-party right-leaning coalition that collapsed within a year, is now marginally ahead in the polls and is projected to win between 24 and 28 MPs in the 150-member parliament.

However, the far-right party's popularity has declined since the previous election, when it secured 37 seats. All major parties have publicly ruled out forming a government with Wilders, who precipitated the collapse of the previous government in June over disagreements concerning his radical immigration proposals.

Major Parties and Projections

Following a campaign dominated by issues such as immigration, healthcare costs, and the nation's acute housing shortage, the left-leaning GL/PvdA coalition, led by ex-EU official Frans Timmermans, is running a near second, projected to win between 22 to 26 parliamentary seats.

Also performing well is the centrist Democrats 66, predicted to boost its representation by almost five times to 21-25 seats, while the centre-right Christian Democrats (CDA) is expected to more than double its seat tally to between 18 and 22.

Members of the previous government – comprising the PVV, liberal-conservative VVD, populist Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB), and NSC – are all forecast to lose seats, with several facing heavy declines.

Electoral System and Fragmentation

In the Netherlands' electoral system, securing just less than one percent of the vote earns a party one MP. Of the 27 parties participating in the vote – which include parties for the over-50s, for youth, for animals, basic income advocates, and for sport – as many as 16 may gain entry to the legislature.

This significant division means that no one party is expected to secure a majority, and Holland has been ruled by multi-party governments – often including several groups in the last few administrations – for more than a century.

Post-Election Scenarios

Wilders has stated that "the democratic process would end" in the country if the his party becomes the largest party yet is shut out of power. However, critics and analysts argue that first place does not guarantee government participation and that any coalition with a majority is democratically valid.

Although the final outcome is uncertain and government negotiations may require months, political observers indicate that following the most extreme government in recent memory, the future government is likely to be a broad-based alliance headed by either the moderate left or centrist right.

Election Day Details

Voting locations, including those in the miniature city Madurodam in The Hague and the Anne Frank house in the capital city, began operations at 7.30am (6:30 GMT) and will close at 9pm. A typically reliable exit poll is anticipated shortly after the polls close.

Once voting concludes, an informateur will test potential governing alliances that could command a majority in the legislature. Potential partners will then draft a governing pact for the next four years and must face a confidence vote in parliament before taking office.