Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that polarised the country and unleashed turmoil, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially contentious and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion
The pair have studied the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is imminent, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unification has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has taken place in universities but scarcely any politicians or advocates seek to involve themselves with the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, none of the commentators supports unification or the status quo. They composes two articles that aim for impartiality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling economic and social figures, past examples and structural examples.
Arguments range over identity markers, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and provoke discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate report they favour unification but oppose increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must establish what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his generation is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a bad or a incompetent government minister who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified arguments, he said. "Somebody will win here and somebody will eventually not succeed but all factions has has something to gain from the opposing arguments."
Request for Broader Dialogue
Westminster needed to join the dialogue, said the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish issue."
